Monday, April 20, 2015

New Paper Uses the Lindzen, Choi 2011 "Iris-Effect" and gets Stunning Reality

A new paper was published today in Nature Geoscience titled "Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models", co-written by Bjorn Stevens who seems to be interested in why the models run so hot.

From the abstract we have:
A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations.
 (Bold is mine.)

That is a complete understatement.  Many readers will be familiar with the 'tropics troposphere of doom' such as this:

With the Iris Effect applied 100%, models get MUCH closer to reality:

Another line of evidence that the oceans are the real climate regulator.


  1. Interesting,
    Perhaps you can give some insight!!

    Solar electromagnetic flux to earth and the Earth. atmospheric electromagnetic flux to space seems to quickly determine the current temperature of every location within or near this planet. I know that your thinking is nearly orthogonal to mine! I politely request some help.
    My POV is that atmospheric WV dominates all temperatures everywhere . However local or regional wind speed dominates the production of free atmospheric WV with its latent heat. Simultaneously the generation of sensible heat from condensation of WV dominates wind mass flow at every location.
    I truly like, but do not understand, the workings of this lovely planet! Do you have any help in understanding this circularity, or even how to stop such? I may just want to get off! :-)

  2. I do not believe I have the depth of "new physics" to answer your question, but our friend in the UK has lots of fascinating theories concerning interactions between planetary bodies:


    (Solar System Dynamics)